Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
